Considering a sailing adventure to Mexico? Just look at how engrossed that guy is in the book! Grab a copy of the Unauthorized Guide to Sailing in Mexico, and you too can find yourself sitting on a Mexican dock with an oversized (but very attractive) hat.

Unauthorized Guide to Sailing in Mexico

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Monday
Oct292012

hurricane decisions

Two interesting things are happening at this very moment. First, the 2012 Baja Haha fleet has left for Mexico. We had planned on beating them by a week, but due to delays with the USCG and hurricane Paul it looks like we'll be leaving after the flotilla by a week.

At 10:00am this morning, 147 boats departed San Diego headed down the Baja peninsula. 

Hundreds of miles south of Cabo San Lucas (the lower tip of Baja), a tropical cyclone is possibly developing: NOAA gives it 50% odds. If it does form, the track has it headed out to sea (the "1" in orange there) and dissipating. Here's NOAA's actual message as of this morning:

 

1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILESSOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THELAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESSFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

 

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OFMANZANILLO MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVEFOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITHIN ADAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLYWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

 

I'll leave the question open for my maritime friends as to what they would do in this situation. Odds are even (and reducing) of it even forming, and the track has it headed safely out to sea. In the wake of hurricane Sandy, and a yacht currently sitting on the beach in Mag Bay because of Hurricane Paul, this formation got me thinking a little bit.

Reader Comments (1)

you know, it doesn't look all that bad. If you look at passage weather the seastate is calm, and the wind is consistent.

All in all I think they're too far off to worry about. Now if they turned north things would change.

October 29, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterMatt

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